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If Meta Sneezes, Does Your Biz Catch a Cold?

Subscribe here | Unsubscribe here | Sept 18, 2025 | FIV #94

✅ Today’s Checklist:

  • Understanding AI search and how to get traffic from it

  • How to stretch your ad dollars while lowering risk

  • The future of advertising looks like this

QUICK LINKS

🚀 Entrepreneurship. The biggest opportunity of the next decade (according to Mark Cuban).

🧠 Leadership & ops. A manifesto for small teams doing important work.

📈 Marketing. Understanding GEO (AI search) and how to get traffic—and money from it. A free 24-minute webinar.

🌱 Personal growth. How to be an expert in a changing world.

💡 Startups. Is your startup any good? Borrow these validation tactics from the founders of Linear, Mercury, and more.

How to Stretch Your Ad Dollars While Lowering Risk

Most founders I know have a love–hate relationship with Meta.

On one hand, it’s been the growth engine for the last decade. You could throw a decent creative into Facebook or Instagram Ads, flip a few targeting knobs, and watch customers roll in.

On the other hand, it’s also a single point of failure.

  • CPMs have climbed steadily.

  • Privacy shifts (hello iOS14) made tracking fuzzy.

  • Algorithm changes leave founders vulnerable.

If your growth depends on a channel you don’t control, you’re exposed. When Meta sneezes—whether from regulation, platform shifts, or pure randomness—your business risks catching a cold.

So what’s the antidote?

Diversification.

Why Diversification Matters More Than Ever

The instinct is to double down on what works. But the problem with Meta is simple:

  • Costs keep rising. Every founder is bidding for the same eyeballs.

  • Diminishing returns set in. Audiences saturate. Creative fatigue hits.

  • No safety net. If Meta pulls a lever tomorrow, you don’t get a say.

Diversification isn’t about abandoning Meta completely—it’s about insulating your growth from external shocks. Think portfolio theory, but for your ad budget. You wouldn’t put 100% of your wealth into one stock. Why would you put 100% of your growth into one platform?

Enter AppLovin: The Hedge You Haven’t Tested Yet

Here’s where most founders get stuck: “If not Meta, then where?”

Google? Sure, but search intent caps out.

TikTok? Great for top-of-funnel, but volatile.

Reddit, LinkedIn, YouTube? Valuable—but often expensive or niche.

AppLovin sits in a sweet spot most founders overlook. Originally a powerhouse in mobile gaming, they’ve quietly built one of the largest ad networks in the world—reaching 1.4 billion daily active users. Their platform, powered by AI (AXON), optimizes in real time across in-app placements, rewarded ads, connected TV, and more.

Translation: you’re not fighting for the same feed real estate as every other DTC founder. You’re reaching fresh, highly engaged audiences in environments Meta can’t touch.

Why Founders Are Paying Attention

  1. Diversification of Inventory. Founders are drawn to the fact that AppLovin doesn’t just serve ads in a crowded social feed. Instead, your campaigns show up inside mobile games, utility apps, and other in-app environments. These placements reach users who are in a different, often more engaged mindset. It’s not just more eyeballs—it’s new contexts where your brand isn’t competing with every other Instagram ad.

  2. Cost Efficiency. Rising CPMs on Meta are squeezing margins. AppLovin, with less direct competition for the same inventory, often delivers stronger ROAS at lower acquisition costs. For founders, that means your budget stretches further—without relying on constant creative churn to offset Meta’s cost inflation.

  3. AI-First Optimization. AppLovin’s AXON engine continuously adapts campaigns in real time. Instead of waiting days or weeks for Meta’s algorithm to settle, you’re able to tap into machine learning that reallocates budget dynamically as performance shifts. The result is faster learning cycles and better results without micromanaging campaigns.

  4. Attribution Clarity. Through its Adjust platform, AppLovin offers more visibility into where results come from. Instead of staring into Meta’s black box and hoping the numbers add up, you gain clearer attribution across touchpoints. That makes scaling decisions less of a gamble and more of a data-backed call.

The Founder’s Playbook: How to Test AppLovin

  1. Reallocate, Don’t Replace. Don’t rip Meta out of your playbook overnight. The smarter move is to treat AppLovin as an insurance policy. Shift 10–15% of your existing budget into a test campaign. That way you keep your Meta momentum while insulating yourself from its volatility.

  2. Reuse Your Winning Creatives. There’s no need to reinvent the wheel on day one. Start by running your top-performing Meta or TikTok ads inside AppLovin’s placements. This gives you a clean benchmark. Once you see which formats resonate—especially rewarded video—you can invest in tailoring creatives specifically for in-app audiences.

  3. Define Success Early. Before spending a dollar, decide which metrics matter most to you: ROAS, CAC, or incremental lift. Lock that in and commit to a testing window of at least three to four weeks. That way, you’re judging performance on meaningful data, not day-to-day noise.

  4. Lean Into High-Converting Formats. Rewarded video ads, where users opt in to watch in exchange for in-app perks, consistently outperform passive placements. Founders who test here often find engagement is higher than traditional feed ads. Interactive formats are also worth exploring once you’ve got traction.

  5. Let the AI Work. The AXON engine improves as it collects more data. Many founders sabotage themselves by cutting tests too early. Instead, give the platform room to learn. Once it locks onto patterns, optimization kicks in fast—and often outpaces Meta’s slower adjustment cycles.

The Psychology of Risk

Founders often tell themselves: “Meta still works, why change?”

But that’s sunk-cost bias in action.

Think about it like this:

  • If Meta keeps working, great—you’re diversified.

  • If Meta falters, you’re covered.

Either way, you win. The risk is in not testing alternatives.

The cost of inaction is bigger than the cost of a small experiment.

A Thought Experiment

Imagine you woke up tomorrow and your Meta account got flagged, throttled, or banned. No warning. No explanation.

Would your acquisition engine keep running? Or would you scramble to rebuild under pressure?

AppLovin is about more than ROAS. It’s about resilience. It’s about being the founder who sleeps at night knowing your business isn’t at the mercy of one company’s whims.

The Founder’s Edge

The best founders aren’t the ones who gamble big on one platform. They’re the ones who:

  • Spot platform shifts early.

  • Run fast, low-cost experiments.

  • Build resilience into their growth strategy.

Meta’s still in the mix. But if you’re serious about building a business that scales—and survives—2025 and beyond, you’ll want to look beyond the usual suspects and diversify your growth channels.

This is why AppLovin is worth keeping an eye on. It’s preparing to roll out a self-serve program in Q4. Access won’t be completely open at launch—you’ll still need a referral code—but it signals another potential rail for those thinking long-term.

Action Step: Once you have access to AppLovin, take 10% of your monthly Meta budget and shift it into AppLovin. Run a 30-day test. Track ROAS, CPM, and CAC. Worst case—you learn. Best case—you’ve unlocked a safer, more profitable growth channel before your competitors even notice.

💡 Founders who diversify win in the long run. Don’t wait until Meta sneezes to find out your business has no immune system.

Sean’s Pick of The Week

We’ve been playing around with Google’s Nano Banana at the surface level, but now we’re itching to go deeper—and what’s possible is wild.

Pair it with Veo 3 on Higgsfield and suddenly you’re running a full AI ad studio.

Realistic talking actors, product shots with surreal effects, motion that feels alive.

We’re diving in ourselves, but if you want to get a head start, there’s already a step-by-step tutorial floating around that walks you from idea to finished ad in record time.

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